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Hurricane Hermine (2016 - WCHB)
Hurricane Hermine was the first major hurricane to strike the United States since Hurricane Wilma in 2005, and the most destructive storm to hit Florida since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The eight named storm, third hurricane and second major hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, Hermine caused a wide swath of destruction across the state of Florida and up the East Coast of the United States. It formed from a long-tracked tropical wave that was slow to develop as it traversed the Atlantic. Moderate to strong wind shear prevailed across much of its journey as a disturbance and as such no impressive organisation occurred until it reached the Lesser Antilles on August 23, after which point it developed into a tropical depression on August 25 north of Haiti. Little change in strength occurred until the system passed through the eastern Bahamas. Strengthening into Tropical Storm Hermine on August 26, the storm moved briskly to the west towards Florida. Hermine quickly strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane before striking Florida south of Miami late on August 27, catching many off guard and causing a lot of damage. Thereafter, it weakened somewhat and entered the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, turning north and paralleling the western coast of Florida. Rapid intensification ensued and Hermine ultimately peaked as a Category 4 major hurricane just before it struck the Big Bend area of Florida on August 30. Hermine weakened while moving inland and became extratropical as it moved off the Delmarva Peninsula early on September 1, re-attaining hurricane-force winds soon afterwards. The system meandered off the Mid-Atlantic coastline while subsequently transitioning into a subtropical cyclone on September 3. Hermine looped around and passed near Cape Cod before it was absorbed by a frontal zone on September 6. Meteorological history A tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic Ocean from the west coast of Africa between late August 16 and early August 17. On August 18, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) first noted the tropical wave as a potential area for development, associated with an area of disorganized convection about 300 mi (480 km) southwest of Cabo Verde. Environmental conditions were expected to be favorable for continued organization. Dry and stable air was an initial inhibiting factor in development, with deep convection waning on August 20 and August 21. However, the convection and circulation had become better defined by August 21. By August 23, the system had developed an elongated and poorly-defined circulation, as indicated by the Hurricane Hunters, though convention continued to expand. On the next day, the low pressure area crossed Guadeloupe into the Caribbean Sea while producing gale-force winds. By this point, the NHC noted that the system could develop into a tropical depression at any time, as the system was only lacking a well-defined circulation. As the system impacted the northern Leeward Islands, it began to move into a more favorable region - characterized by little dry air and low wind shear - for development. The elongated circulation began to become better defined, and the disturbance began to exhibit features indicative of establishing outflow on the system's northern side. By August 25, as it emerged into the southwestern Atlantic, another Hurricane Hunters aircraft found that circulation had become well-defined within a central dense overcast (CDO) with hints of banding features. This resulted in the disturbance being classified as Tropical Depression Eight at 21:00 UTC that day while located 180 miles (290 km) to the north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The nascent depression was steered west-northwest under the influence of a strong ridge to its north, centered over the central Atlantic. Six hours later, the depression strengthened into a tropical storm, being assigned the name "Hermine". Despite some land interaction to its south, reconnaissance aircraft found on August 26 that the system was strengthening. Hermine passed through the Bahamas on August 27 as an intensifying tropical storm, and some forecasts anticipated that the storm could possibly attain hurricane status before striking Florida. In addition, the chances of rapid intensification were above average, and the SHIPS model predicted a 60 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in winds before landfall. Consequently, these predictions came true as Hermine became a hurricane early on August 28 near the Florida coastline. Quickly intensifying, Hermine attained an initial peak intensity of 105 mph (170 km/h) before making landfall in Palmetto Bay, Florida at 13:45 UTC that day. The compact system maintained its intensity for several hours before weakening slightly and entering the Gulf of Mexico later that afternoon. At this point, models diverged significantly on the possible future of Hermine. Several models including the HWRF, EMCWF and UKMET anticipated that Hermine would move westward and turn towards New Orleans, Louisiana as a strong Category 4 hurricane in a very similar fashion to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, causing fears and prompting evacuations "just in case". Other models thought that Hermine would immediately begin turning to the north-northwest towards the Big Bend area of Florida. The latter prediction turned out to be true, as late on August 29 Hermine commenced a northward turn while closely hugging the western coast of the Sunshine State. However, the conditions in the eastern Gulf of Mexico were much more favorable then near the Bahamas, with little wind shear, a very moist atmosphere and sea surface temperatures of 30 °C (86 °F). Consequently, the hurricane commenced a more dangerous period of rapid intensification beginning at 00:00 UTC on August 30. This culminated with Hermine reaching its peak intensity at 18:00 UTC as a Category 4 major hurricane with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 948 millibars (27.99 inHg) roughly 100 mi (160 km) southeast of Pensacola, Florida. Hermine maintained a northern motion for a few more hours before making landfall southeast of Tallahassee, Florida near its peak intensity. Quickly weakening, the former system fell below hurricane strength by the afternoon of the next day as it moved northeastwards into South Carolina. The cyclone begin to interact with a frontal zone to its north, and Hermine became extratropical on September 2 as it moved off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Hurricane-force winds developed on the southeastern quadrant of the system as it meandered off the coast of New Jersey, however late on September 3 it began to show signs of shedding its fronts as it moved into a slightly more favorable area for development south of Long Island, it completed this transition shortly afterwards at 00:00 UTC on September 4. This led to the NHC re-classifying Hermine as a subtropical cyclone due to the expanded wind field it had acquired while extratropical. It later made clipped the eastern part of Cape Cod, Massachusetts late on September 4. As it accelerated eastward it once again began displaying extratropical characteristics, and it became extratropical for a second time at 18:00 UTC on September 5, before dissipating the next day. Preparations Bahamas As soon as advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression Eight, tropical storm watches and warnings were declared for much of the Bahamas. Cuba United States Florida Georgia South Carolina North Carolina Mid-Atlantic states Impact Category:Category 4 hurricanes Category:2016 Atlantic hurricane season Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons Category:Atlantic hurricanes